lone20
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Deciphering the hidden pitfalls behind the data: 10 data detective lessons from undercover economists Since many statistics are used today to highlight some problems, and most people are unfamiliar with the discipline of statistics, many people will think that statistics are a tool for manipulating topics. However, good statistics are not used to distort the truth or cover up the truth, but are effective tools to help us see more clearly. Author Tim. Tim Harford is a senior columnist for the Financial Times and presenter of BBC Radio 4's More or Less. He is an honorary member of the Royal Statistical Society and a visiting scholar at Nuffield College, Oxford University. He has won several awards for economic and statistical journalism. In 2019, he was awarded the Order of the British Empire (OBE) for "in recognition of his promotion of public understanding of the economy". He makes good use of a large number of vivid, lively, and well-known examples, supplemented by a large amount of data evidence, so that readers can gradually understand the hidden pitfalls behind the data like reading a story, and at the same time lists ten guidelines to help readers effectively understand statistics and dig out data from them. Valuable data. If we stay alert and think carefully about where data comes from and how it is presented, we can see the world with clear eyes. Especially now that the COVID-19 epidemic is still unclear, the correct use of statistics can help us individuals, organizations and even society to make the best decisions. The following is a wonderful excerpt from "10 Data Detective Lessons from Undercover Economists": Statistical tricks from the perspective of the new crown epidemic In the spring of 2020, it suddenly became apparent that the high stakes that could be involved in conducting statistical research rigorously, promptly and legitimately could not be more apparent. A new form of coronavirus is sweeping the world. Political leaders around the world must face the most important conundrum in decades, and decisions must be made quickly. These important decisions rely on the results of data analysis by epidemiologists, medical statisticians and economists. Tens of millions of lives are at stake and billions of livelihoods are at stake. Data sleuths try to use data to piece together what's going on in the world, but the evidence from all directions is never immediate enough. Epidemiologist John Ioannidis (John Ioannidis) wrote in March 2020 that the new crown pneumonia may be a once-in-a-century catastrophe for mankind. We must make life-or-death decisions without knowing anything. But within weeks, data sleuths began to map out some important features of the new coronavirus, and the disease it causes. We have gradually discovered that many people develop symptoms after being infected for a period of time, and some people are asymptomatically infected, and how many such people are is a very important question. (Now think about one in four people. But after a little reflection you will find that it is difficult to answer this question without someone rigorously tracking and analyzing the data.) We soon learned that older people are more likely than younger people. The risks are so much higher that a reasonable fatality rate can even be extrapolated: about 1% in wealthy countries with large elderly populations. This value was obtained after a heated discussion, and will change with the progress of medicine and the mutation of the virus. Still, the early estimates turned out to be surprisingly solid.
Website: https://techtuba.com/
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