lone25
@lone25
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Registered: 1 year, 4 months ago
2022 Economic Outlook: "A fly in the ointment", consumption growth momentum is expected According to historical records, a great plague usually lasts up to three years; the epidemic will enter its third year in 2022, and countries are now gradually "flu-like" the epidemic. If there are no accidents, humans will gradually learn how to coexist with the new coronavirus, and the next issue that must be paid attention to is how to restore the global economy to normal, or enter a new normal. From the end of 2021 to 2022, the main theme of global economic growth is "a fly in the ointment": Many international forecasting agencies believe that because the economic growth rates of the United States and China have encountered some turbulence, it does not look as good as 2021. In Japan, although the epidemic was out of control from January to September 2021, not only the economy was affected, but even the political arena was greatly shaken. However, since the epidemic slowed down in the fourth quarter, it is expected to become a bright spot in the global economy next year. As for Taiwan, the economic growth momentum in the past two years mainly came from exports and investment. It is estimated that domestic demand will become the economic momentum in 2022, and its performance is still impressive. In the past two years of the epidemic, the economic growth of the United States and China has been performing very well. Why is it likely to decline in 2022? The situations faced by the two countries and the problems to be solved are not the same. For example, the U.S. Federal Reserve has already begun to adjust monetary policy, and will return from “loose to normal” ; however, China announced at this time to lower the deposit reserve ratio in an attempt to activate the market with loose funds. U.S.: Upward pressure on prices remains strong, moves from ultra-loose to normalization So, what are the problems that the two countries need to solve? In the United States, the pressure of rising prices is still great. The main problem in 2021 is the unsatisfactory supply. The other is the "wealth effect" mentioned in traditional economic theory. As long as stocks and real estate make money, consumption will be stronger. However, because of the obvious wealth effect of this epidemic, many people do not want to return to the job market, resulting in a shortage of supply in the labor market. This has caused the US Federal Reserve to fall into the dilemma of whether to raise interest rates or not to raise interest rates. The current situation is similar to the stage where the "green light is flashing rapidly, and the yellow light is about to be turned on". The fast flashing green light means that the Federal Reserve’s monthly 120 billion bond purchase plan will stop in March 2022, and it is expected to start raising interest rates from the second quarter, officially entering a normal state, that is, the "yellow light" stage , and is expected to raise interest rates three times. As for when it will really enter the "tightening period", that is, the amount of money printed will decrease and the interest rate will rise from 1% to 2%, it must be observed again.
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